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Going for broke
After repeated financial fiascos, it's time to bring the IMF to book By Jeffrey Sachs Saturday January 16, 1999
The International Monetary
Fund is currently scoring five out of five - five big rescue packages
since mid-1997, and five big failures. Two months ago the IMF promised $41
billion to Brazil to help it stabilise its currency, the real. Last
Wednesday the real plummeted by nearly 10 per cent and yesterday was
devalued again after Brazil had used around $40 billion of foreign
exchange reserves to defend the currency. The Brazil debacle follows IMF
programme failures in Thailand (August 1997), Indonesia (November 1997),
Korea (December 1997), and Russia (August 1998).
When things go wrong with IMF-led programmes, as they seem inevitably
to do these days, much of the establishment can be heard saying that all
is for the best, or that any faults lie with the countries receiving IMF
loans, not with the designs of IMF programmes themselves. It's time to get
more serious. The IMF is working with the wrong economic model of the
world. And as long as it continues to do so, and to remain protected by a
hapless G7 that refuses to call the institution to task for its failures,
the rest of the world will continue to wake up to financial shocks that
undermine living standards in developing countries and that threaten
global stability. In essence, the IMF has listened too closely to Wall Street in recent
years, taken at face value the recommendations and commentary of investors
in emerging markets. The key interest of these short-term investors is
straightforward. If you are a US bank with investments in Brazil, the main
thing that you want is for Brazil to maintain its currency exchange rate
until the time that you have been repaid - after that, who cares! Thus,
you pressure the IMF and the US Treasury to urge Brazil, or Russia, or any
other unfortunate IMF-loan recipient, to defend its currency at all costs.
This gives the foreign investor time to get his money out of the country
unscathed by a change in currency values. But let's look at the consequences. Brazil's currency was too strong
for several years, thereby punishing the country's exporters and
contributing to low economic growth. The financial markets came to
understand this basic fact, and therefore began to expect a currency
devaluation. As a result, to defend its currency (as it did until
Wednesday), it was necessary for Brazil to maintain punishingly high
interest rates at home, in order to encourage investors, both foreign and
domestic, to take the risk of keeping their money in Brazil. These crushingly high interest rates, of 50 per cent per year or more,
threw the economy into recession. But for the foreign creditors, that
didn't matter - or so they thought. They just wanted to be repaid without
a devaluation. For example, if a defence of the currency succeeds for six
months, that's just fine for international banks that have 90-day loans on
their books. Actually, the consequences went beyond the recession itself. To defend
the value of the exchange rate, the Brazilian Central Bank had to sell
dollars and buy local currency. Thus,the country's foreign exchange
reserves began to fall sharply. This put Brazil at risk of a terrible
financial panic, since a country without enough foreign reserves can
easily be thrown into default on foreign obligations (as occured in Russia
in August 1997). The IMF stepped in when Brazil's reserve levels declined at an alarming
rate last autumn. To the cheers of the financial establishment, the IMF
told Brazil in December: 'Don't worry about your falling foreign exchange
reserves, we'll give you another $41 billion of short-term loans for you
to defend your currency'. This was insidious. IMF loans are effectively used to repay the foreign
investors, either through a fairly direct mechanism (as was the case in
Korea in December 1997), or indirectly when the central bank sells the
dollars in the foreign exchange market as part of its currency defence
operations. In the end, the Brazilian people took on $41 billion of new debt, part
of which was used to repay foreign loans. Brazil's taxes will now have to
be raised, or spending cut, to service the IMF's loans. Of course, in the end, everybody has lost in the Brazilian fiasco. The
Brazilian people's debts have risen as a result of the IMF 'bailout', the
currency has crashed anyway, the Brazilian economy is unnecessarily in
tatters, and many foreign investors have lost some of their investments,
since only a portion of the investors were able to get out in time. The
result: a disaster made with the complicity of the official institution
charged with helping its member countries such as Brazil. What are the remedies? First, after years of failure, the G7, for its
own good, should lead the IMF's managing director, Michel Camdessus, to
the door. Second, there needs to be a complete revamp of IMF operations.
The institution should stop its failed prescriptions of crushingly high
interest rates and large loans to countries to defend their overvalued
currencies. On the part of developing countries, two crucial steps are needed.
First, countries should - in the vast majority of cases - adopt flexible
exchange rate systems,rather than pegged exchange rate systems. Second,
they should reject the sweet enticements of short-term loans from
international banks and from the IMF. The combination of overvalued
currencies, short-term debts, and IMF 'rescue packages' have proved to be
an explosive brew. • Jeffrey Sachs Prof Sachs is director of the Centre for International
Development at Harvard University | ||
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